Wimbledon Predictions: Men's draw analysis and tournament futures (2024)

The 2024 Wimbledon draw is officially set, so we’re here to dive into it. Let’s look at the men’s men’s side of things, where Carlos Alcaraz is looking to win back-to-back Grand Slam titles and back-to-back Wimbledon titles. The Spaniard beat Novak Djokovic in a fun five-set match in last year’s final at the All England Club, and he also happens to be coming off a title run at the French Open. Meanwhile, Djokovic is attempting to compete after having had meniscus surgery three weeks ago. I already wrote a bit about that. However, it’s Jannik Sinner that is the betting favorite to emerge victorious in London. With all of that in mind, we’re in for a dramatic couple of weeks. Keep reading for my Wimbledon draw analysis and Wimbledon futures.

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Wimbledon Men’s Draw Analysis

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Quarter 1: There are some real challenges for Sinner in this part of the draw. The Italian shouldn’t have any real problems beating Yannick Hanfmann in the first round, but that’s not a match he can take lightly. After that, we could potentially see a blockbuster showdown between Sinner and 2021 Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini. That’s another one that should go the way of Sinner, but Berrettini is a top-five player in the men’s game when it comes to raw grass-court Elo rating. And he can beat anybody on this surface when he’s serving well. Sinner would also have another tough match in the quarterfinals, where he could see either Grigor Dimitrov or Daniil Medvedev. Dimitrov is a superb grass-court performer, while Medvedev is a pain to play anywhere.Sinner should ultimately be fine. But this isn’t an easy draw.

Quarter 2: Things probably couldn’t have shaped up better for Alcaraz. The Spaniard won’t see a highly talented player until the fourth round, where he’ll likely play either Matteo Arnaldi or Frances Tiafoe. He should easily beat either one of them. It also looks like Alcaraz will face Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals, unless Alexander Bublik can maintain his focus for four full matches — or Casper Ruud figures out a way to play this sport on grass. However, Paul would be a difficult matchup for Alcaraz on this surface. More on that later.

Quarter 3: This feels like the quarter of opportunity. Alexander Zverev is the top seed in this part of the draw, but he’s just 36-20 on grass in his career. That 64.3% winning percentage is the worst he has on any of the three surfaces. So, players like Jack Draper, Taylor Fritz and Sebastian Korda have to be feeling like there’s a real shot at making the semifinals. Of course, Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are also in this quarter. But neither one of those players feels like a real threat heading into this tournament. I’ll take a shot in Quarter 3 in my futures below.

Quarter 4: It’s no secret that I have questions about how Djokovic will perform in this tournament. The Serbian does have an easy early draw, so he’ll have the luxury of trying to play his way into form. But with him having just had surgery, it’s hard not to like guys like Holger Rune or Karen Khachanov to potentially knock him out in the fourth round. And if he somehow does get by there, Hubert Hurkacz or Alex De Minaur will likely be waiting in the quarterfinals. Hurkacz is a dangerous player at Wimbledon, and he really pushed Djokovic in a four-set match last year. That was a better and healthier version of the 24-time Grand Slam champion. So, Hurkacz should feel good about beating Djokovic this year. De Minaur would probably feel the same. The Australian has had more success than you’d think on this surface, and he’s a real threat to make the semis.

Wimbledon Futures

Grigor Dimitrov To Win Quarter 1 (11-1 – 0.5 units): Dimitrov is in Sinner’s quarter, so it’s not going to be easy for him to advance to the semifinals. However, the Bulgarian has a pretty reasonable draw until the quarterfinals. Dimitrov’s road is likely going to see him taking on Dusan Lajovic, Juncheng Shang, Gael Monfils and then Jan-Lennard Struff or Daniil Medvedev. All of those matches favor Dimitrov on a grass court. So, if Dimitrov just handles his business, you should be holding a +1100 ticket on him to beat Sinner in the quarterfinals. Dimitrov’s recent form has left a lot to be desired, but he has won more matches on grass than most of the players in this tournament.So, I’d expect the oddsmakers to show Dimitrov some respect, making that match somewhat hedge-able.

Tommy Paul To Win Quarter 2 (+500): Alcaraz is the defending Wimbledon champion and just won at Roland Garros, but it’s hard to say he’s playing as well in 2024 as he did in 2023. The Spaniard also lost to Draper somewhat convincingly in his second match at Queen’s Club. So, Alcaraz doesn’t have a lot of grass-court matches under his belt coming into this event. That said, it’s no given that he’ll win this quarter. Meanwhile, Paul won a title in Queen’s Club and has the eighth-highest grass-court Elo rating in the world. I really like the way his game translates to this surface, as the quicker courts make him more dangerous as a server, he’s aggressive in coming to the net and he plays better defense than most on these low-bouncing courts. With a reasonable draw, I just don’t see any reason Paul won’t be in the quarterfinals. And if he ends up facing Alcaraz, he’ll like his chances of winning. He is 2-2 against the Spaniard in his career, with one of the two losses coming in a tight three-set battle.

Sebastian Korda To Win Quarter 3 (10-1 – 0.5 units): Korda has a really difficult opening-round match, as he’s barely a favorite against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. But I still think these odds are a little too long for a player with Korda’s grass-court ability. Sure, the American will have to win some tough matches here, but he’s 16-9 on grass in his career. He’s more successful and comfortable on this surface than he is anywhere else, and he has the 12th-highest Elo rating in the world on grass. He also has the third-highest Elo rating of anybody in this quarter, but the overall number isn’t too far off from where Zverev and Rublev are. So, while this is definitely a bit more of a dart throw, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.

Wimbledon Prediction

I’m not betting on anybody to win this tournament, as I just don’t like the numbers. However, I figured I’d put it on record that I think Sinner will win this event. The Italian won a grass-court title in Halle and is clearly healthy after having dealt with a hip injury before the French Open. That should mean that his cardio will be back at the right level, so I’d be surprised if cramping becomes an issue. That’s what did him in against Alcaraz in Paris. Sinner’s game is also perfectly suited for these fast conditions. Over the last 52 weeks, Sinner has the highest hold percentage in the world. He’s also a top-five player when it comes to the return game. When you combine that with his clean ball-striking ability, it’s hard to imagine anybody beating him over the next two weeks.

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Wimbledon Predictions: Men's draw analysis and tournament futures (2024)


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